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What shape will post COVID-19 economic recovery take in the Lehigh Valley?
Melinda Rizzo, Contributing Writer//May 14, 2020
What shape will post COVID-19 economic recovery take in the Lehigh Valley?
Melinda Rizzo, Contributing Writer//May 14, 2020//
Listen to this articleKamran Afshar, director of the Kamran Afshar Data Analytics Center at DeSales University in Upper Saucon Township, said economists across the United States are weighing in about what post COVID-19 recovery will look like.
“A very small group think there will be a “V-shaped” economy [transition],” Afshar said. That means the returning spike to economic health and vibrancy will happen as quickly as the descent. “About 4% of economists who have published think that is possible but most do not,” Afshar said.
Another theory is a “W-shape” where recovery is slow, especially in sectors that restart too soon. “It will collapse, get worse and then take time to rebound,” Afshar said.
He said most economists who have published suggest a “U-shape” recovery.
“We’ll bounce off the bottom, maybe through Q4 (fourth quarter 2020) into the first quarter of 2021. Next year we’ll start to see the recovery coming,” he said.
